2024 election outcome gave a mixed feeling. Happy because the alternate outcome of brutal majority would be worse. Happiness with disappointment because we need to survive these two, Modi and Shah for another 5 years. I was debating the caption for this writeup, It could have been worse, All is not lost….yet, A reprieve for democracy, A sliver of home amidst disappointment, Blessing in disguise for the functioning democracy. Couldn’t find the right words for the feelings I am going through. Picked the current title which I think is close enough to convey the mixed feeling.
2024 election wasn’t an equal fight to begin with. 2 CMs were jailed just before election, one managed to get bail towards the final weeks of multi-phase election. Key players from opposition parties were kept busy with investigative agencies. Operation Washing machine worked in full swing…how I wish we get that washing machine for our home. Shiv Sena and NCP were broken. Congress leaders kept jumping ship in multiple states. Governors of opposition ruled states kept interfering in the functioning of democratically elected state governments. Divisive rhetoric reached high decibels after the first phase of the election and reached a sickening and repulsive pitch towards the close. INDIA (I wish they pick a different acronym for the alliance…I in INDIA stands for INDIA 🤔), the opposition alliance, had a troubled start and kind of reached an informal stability only by Jan / Feb of 2024. Not everything is bad, we also had good dose of humor from the campaign, AA delivered money to opposition leaders using tempos was a good one😁 Post the election result, EXIT polls from most of the media houses became a laughingstock, we weren’t sure it was done by pollsters or pranksters. Either they didn’t have a clue, they lied, or maybe they were scared to tell their boss he wasn’t wearing any clothes.
After a prolonged election, the result came out as a breath of fresh air. One shudders to think why anyone would want to give or support a brutal majority to any party or any leader. That is like handing over weapons of mass destruction to the enemy on a golden platter. Power corrupts and absolute majority corrupts absolutely. That kind of majority with investigative agencies under their control and compromised institutions will only result in dictatorship. We had the taste of it in the last term just with 303 and earlier in 1975. Rajiv Gandhi had that kind of majority in 1984, but luckily Rajiv being new to politics, India survived.
What could have been is averted with the current result. We narrowly escaped from majoritarian and dictatorial governance. For another five years at the least. A majoritarian PM has to work without a majority for now. Modi will form the government with alliance support since the Third term after Nehru is important to him. He is setting a record. Modi and Shah will agree to alliance ASKS and give in now. For how long is the question mark? Since the traits are hard to change. Multiple ifs. Our expectations on Chandrababu Naidu and Nitish Kumar to keep these two under check, is that realistic? After few months, my guess is operation Washing Machine will work in full swing to pull MPs and key leaders from opposition parties. Upcoming state elections will set the trend. Credit goes to Rahul Gandhi and key leaders of regional parties for working together and getting a decent opposition in place.
To make my position clear, by first principles I don’t support any leader or party without questioning. How they function in a democracy, in assembly and parliament is more important to me than their hero or charismatic or divine status. Even if they have majority in the house, they need to work with the opposition and debate the policies and issues. Each side need to argue and try to win over the other side with their reasoning skills. Bulldozers, pushing their agenda with brute force, 8PM unilateral devastating decisions, they are a big NO…NO. Don’t use the chilling effect approaches to silence critics and dissent. With no proportional representation in our system, the next best thing is to get that representation indirectly through coalition governments, don’t give majority to any single party, at state or union level. India has figured out how to make the coalition work from 1977. We had initial stutters and stumbles but it worked from 1991-2014. Some may find it slow to their expectations, but democracy is painfully a slow process in a pluralistic society like ours. DMK didn’t sweep all the 40 seats, it is the alliance that did – DMK, Congress, VCK, CPI, etc. This is only partially good…because people who voted for ADMK, BJP, NTK, don’t have any one to represent them, which is a good chunk. Even in brutal majority, the leaders need to realize that nearly 50-60% of the population didn’t vote for them. Unfortunately, majority and power get into their heads 🥲
With no party having majority, it is a sliver of hope for now. Hope is a good thing. Let’s hope the opposition plays their role responsibly. Let’s hope Modi and Shah respect the parliamentary process and follow it. Let’s hope Naidu and Nitish keep these two in check. Let’s hope Modi gives press conferences within India (yeah….not even in your dreams😀). Lets’ hope….you get the idea 😀 Let me leave with the following quotes from B.R.Ambedkar which are relevant for our representatives and our people.
“Constitutional morality is not a natural sentiment. It has to be cultivated. We must realise that our people have yet to learn it. Democracy in India is only a top dressing on an Indian soil which is essentially undemocratic.”
“In an autocracy where the laws are made by the wishes of a dictator or by an absolute monarch, the art of speaking is unnecessary. No autocrat, no absolute monarch need pay any attention to eloquence because his will is law. But in a parliament where laws are made, no doubt by the wishes of the people, the man who succeeds in winning our opposition is the man who possesses the art to persuade his opponent. You cannot win over a majority in this House by giving a black eye to your opponent.”
“A minority is not going to curb a majority by bringing goondas, nor is the majority going to record and obtain a victory by laying low the members of the minority. You will have to carry a proposition only by the art of speaking, by persuading his opponent, by winning him over his side by argument, either gentle or strong, but always logically and instructively.”
“The second thing we must do is to observe the caution which John Stuart Mill has given to all who are interested in the maintenance of democracy, namely, not to lay their liberties at the feet of even a great man, or to trust him with power which enable him to subvert their institutions. There is nothing wrong in being grateful to great men who have rendered life-long services to the country. But there are limits to gratefulness. As has been well said by the Irish Patriot Daniel O’Connell, no man can be grateful at the cost of his honour, no woman can be grateful at the cost of her chastity and no nation can be grateful at the cost of its liberty. This caution is far more necessary in the case of India than in the case of any other country. For in India, Bhakti or what may be called the path of devotion or hero-worship, plays a part in its politics unequalled in magnitude by the part it plays in the politics of any other country in the world. Bhakti in religion may be a road to the salvation of the soul. But in politics, Bhakti or hero-worship is a sure road to degradation and to eventual dictatorship.”
I feel opposition missed the opportunity to play a game with bandwagon effect but BJP saved itself because it did that exactly but can’t change the narrative completely after what they did in last 10 years.
Generally undecided swing public’s opinion are framed in a way that last in majority. BJP projected that narrative, opposition is not even a match to discuss by saying 400 but they understood from intel that thier vote share will come down in hindi belt and they were pushing for other regions as backup for more than a year, while opposition was trying to do catch up. This is a result of public opinion against BJP and not support for opposition.
A measured and balanced view point , very well brought out.